HMI Index Hits 50 for the First Time: Builder’s View Sales for New Single Family Homes as Good

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Being realistic about your dream home

The June 17, 2013 National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) just released its latest results indicating that the HMI has been over 50 since April of 2006. This means more builders believe that today’s sales conditions are good. This the first time the HMI has been above 50 – an eight point jump since August and September of 2002, and many builders say there is a revival for ranch house plans.

Derived from a 25 year old monthly survey, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, looks at builder perceptions or what they call their “confidence level” concerning the sales expectations for single family homes over a six month period – and their ratings are either good, fair or poor.

Companies such as online plan provider, The Plan Collection, is seeing an interest in ranch house plans. A flat earth-hugging, one-story home reminiscent of the 1950s through the 1960s have become the hot topic today. Many experts believe it is a revival among baby boomers who were raised in these popular style homes, with open floor plans, high ceilings, and sliding glass doors leading to a patio where today’s home owners are building outdoor kitchens. Another reason ranch house plans may be making a comeback is due to the wide hallways, and single story levels which accommodate aging people unable to climb stairways. In addition, the layouts include a bedroom on the opposite end of the Master suite, which could service as a flex room for relatives or kids, or an office.

Baby boomers are reviving the old 1950's and '60's ranch style house.
Baby boomers are reviving the old 1950’s and ’60’s ranch house plan.

The HMI survey asks builders to also rate the traffic of prospective buyers – and these are rated as “high to very high,” “average” and “low to very low.” Once complied, these scores are used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index.  Whenever the number is more than 50 it means that more builders are viewing conditions as good than poor.

The company’s three-month moving average was up in three of the four regions, with the Northeast and Midwest posting a one-point and three-point gains to 37 and 47, respectively. The west fell one point to 48, while the south registered a four point gain to 46.

All three HMI index components posted positive gains in June:

·    Current sales conditions increased eight points to 56
·     Expectations for future sales rose nine points to 61(highest level since March 2006)
·     Prospective buyers rose seven points to 40

 More information on housing statistics is available at: http://www.housingeconomics.com/